If, in the early months of the war, there was the legendary “Ghost of Kyiv,” now there is the specter of negotiations. Throughout this time, Ukrainian society has been probed about its attitude towards possible negotiations with the Russian Federation. There have been several high-profile surveys, plans, and forecasts. For example, as the sensational column by former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, proposing to trade territories for EU and NATO membership. However, it all started with an article from “Dzerkalo Tyzhnia”. The results of the survey conducted by the Razumkov Sociological Center at the request of this publication were perceived by both Ukrainian and international media as a kind of sensation.
Now, 44% of Ukrainians are ready for peace negotiations with the neighboring state. Only 35% are not ready for such talks. “Dzerkalo Tyzhnia” also notes that the number of those willing to negotiate increases from west to south of the country. In the west, only 35% of respondents consider negotiations with Russia possible. In the south, it is as high as 60%. This could mean that the majority of Ukrainians are beginning to lean towards a peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
However, if we look closely at the results of this survey, we will also notice that the overwhelming majority of participants are not ready for any real concessions that Russian leader Vladimir Putin demands. These participants were residents of the so-called rear Ukraine, as the survey was not conducted among military personnel. They are not ready to make concessions even as a result of peace negotiations, let alone as a condition for their commencement.
83% of Ukrainians do not consider it possible to agree to the recognition of the Russian status of the four occupied regions of Ukraine ‒ Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Putin also demands that Ukrainian troops withdraw from these regions’ territories, which are currently controlled by the legitimate Ukrainian government. 77% do not consider it possible to lift Western sanctions against Russia. 58% do not agree to the possibility of enshrining Ukraine’s neutral, non-aligned, and non-nuclear status in the constitution. This is, of course, less than the number of people who are not ready for any territorial concessions to Russia, but still quite significant. 66% of Ukrainians believe in the possibility of defeating Russia on the battlefield despite of this inclination towards negotiations.
82% are confident that this is possible if the West provides sufficient armament to Ukraine. 76% consider it necessary to strengthen their own military-industrial complex and mobilization. This also indicates a certain contradiction in the positions of those who participated in the survey. My colleagues note that there are now both the opinions typically expressed by sociologists, which align with the general political and public mainstream, and those expressed in private settings ‒ only to close friends and relatives. Not because they fear repercussions from the state, but because they do not want to be perceived as citizens ready to compromise national interests and Ukraine’s territories, even before themselves. The existence of both public and private perceptions of reality was perfectly demonstrated by another aspect of this survey, which found that only 46% of Ukrainians believe there is nothing wrong with being a so-called “draft dodger.” Only 29% hold the opposite view. Interestingly, a large number of people who believe there is nothing wrong with dodging the draft are among young people and, conditionally, among the generation of their parents. Many older people with Soviet experience hold quite the opposite view, likely based on Soviet narratives of shame associated with the unwillingness to serve in the Armed Forces. This viewpoint was not widely held during the post-Soviet period and now influences societal perceptions and views on the status of draft dodgers.
However, I would not overestimate the significance of this public opinion for one simple reason. Of course, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky might orient himself towards it, as he is already making numerous attempts to initiate a negotiation process between Ukraine and Russian State. Despite that, such an initiation must be done in a way that Ukraine does not make the concessions Putin demands. For real negotiations to occur, two participants are needed ‒ there must be genuine interest in negotiations, not ultimatums from the Kremlin. Not to mention that in Ukraine, we deal with society, while in Russia, we deal with propaganda slaves.
Therefore, Putin and his entourage have much more room for maneuver than the Ukrainian authorities. The Ukrainian authorities, being an electoral state, must consider their future political and life prospects. This means they must exclude decisions that would entail serious responsibility in the future. Thus, we might ask ourselves whether the Russian Federation is interested in any negotiations with Ukraine at all. Do we realize that even the conditions Putin sets for Ukraine as a start for negotiations are not a beginning? They are a tool to destabilize our country, making it easier to occupy new Ukrainian territories. It is essential to understand that Putin is not interested in a peaceful end to the war through negotiations with Ukraine. He seeks an end that would put an end to the existence of the Ukrainian state.
The opinions of the Ukrainian government and Ukrainian society on the negotiation process, and even the West’s perception of this process, do not bother Vladimir Putin at all. As long as the Russian leader can hope for further economic cooperation with the countries of the “global south” and the assistance of the People’s Republic of China in rearming its army and restoring the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation. This is exactly what is happening now, as we all know.
Consequently, one can ask the Ukrainian society whether it desires negotiations with Russia. However, it is necessary understand that neither Ukrainian society nor the government influences the negotiation process, as it has been throughout the entire 10-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The only person capable of ending the war through negotiations is Vladimir Putin. As we already know, he has no interest in this because he is confident that time is his great ally. Sooner or later, Russia’s political goals will be achieved, the Ukrainian state will be liquidated, its citizens expelled or exterminated, and the territories Putin considers “historical Russia” will be settled by residents of the Russian Federation.
I wished that every Ukrainian ‒ both those who believe that the time for negotiations has come and those who believe that negotiations are not in time ‒ had an accurate understanding of this reality. Because in Russia, no one perceives the Ukrainian state as a subject for negotiations, but rather as an object for destruction.
“So, what to do in such a situation?” someone might ask, still hoping for a negotiation process with the Russian Federation. Understand the dilemma ‒ either Ukraine manages to stop Russian aggression, or the Ukrainian state will disappear from the political map of the world, and most of its residents will be expelled beyond Ukraine’s borders. This is the reality, which is hard to reflect in any sociological survey. There is no other reality for Ukrainian citizens today, and perhaps there will not be in the foreseeable future.
This is not a question of territories or negotiations. It is a matter of the people’s survival.
