Ukraine successfully leveraged the conflict in the Middle East for mutual benefit.

The world is becoming increasingly destabilized.
The month-and-a-half-long joint military operation by the US and Israel against Iran has currently stalled, leaving a series of ellipses. Despite US President Donald Trump's various main objectives for the operation—regime change of the ayatollahs, destruction of their nuclear weapons development capabilities, annihilation of their strategic missiles and production capabilities, depriving Iran of the ability to support its proxies, or all these goals combined—none have been achieved. Another goal emerged, which did not exist at the start of the operation: the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz.

In response to warnings from CIA Director Ratcliffe and others familiar with the situation that blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of oil from Persian Gulf countries is transported by sea, as well as gas, fertilizers, and other strategically important cargo, would be the first act of defense by the Islamic Republic, Trump replied: they won't do it because it's not in their interest, and they won't have time because we'll bomb them to smithereens. He claimed that after our initial bombings, millions of freedom-loving Iranians would take to the streets and overthrow the ayatollah regime.

The US and Israel did not manage to completely destroy Iran's capabilities, although they significantly reduced them. Millions of Iranians, intimidated by the January shootings, did not take to the streets this time. The Iranian regime likely calculated that closing the strait and thus creating a crisis in the global oil market would be more beneficial than keeping it open. In any case, in response to the first massive strikes by the Israeli and US Air Forces, which wiped out almost the entire top leadership of the ayatollah regime, including Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the first week of the war, and claimed to have destroyed their naval fleet and air forces, Iran responded not only by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and launching massive bombings of Israel but also by heavily shelling the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, which neither US nor Israeli intelligence anticipated. The surviving Iranian leadership emphasized that they only targeted US military bases in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, but in reality, all Persian Gulf countries were hit by Iran, mostly by its Shahed drones.

None of these countries, including Israel, had the capability to defend against Iranian drones, except for the American Patriots. Millions of dollars against drones costing no more than a few tens of thousands.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz immediately raised the price of oil and gas on world markets, which also affected the price of American oil, even though the US does not import fuel from the Persian Gulf, as it has enough of its own oil. However, gasoline prices at American gas stations skyrocketed several times, leading to an economic crisis. Trump's approval rating, elected on promises not only to avoid starting new wars but also to end ongoing ones, plummeted to just over 30%.

The Iranian regime survived, and the new faces replacing the killed leaders proved even more radical, as a wounded beast is always more aggressive than an unwounded one. The war threatened to turn into an endless conflict, just like with Afghanistan and Iraq, with similarly unpredictable but certainly not good consequences for Israel and the US.

Against this backdrop, negotiations opened in Islamabad, Pakistan, between US Vice President J.D. Vance and the same special envoys Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, with whom Iranian representatives had previously refused to speak, and an Iranian delegation led by the speaker of parliament. The talks are ongoing.

Amid complications with Iran, the rift between the US and European countries deepened. On one hand, NATO member countries declared that the war with Iran did not concern them, but they allowed the US to use their military bases. On the other hand, Trump was furious with NATO countries and threatened to leave the alliance. He argued that since they didn't come to help against Iran, they shouldn't count on our help.

In reality, after insults, disdain, and blatant ignoring of the Russian threat, primarily to Europe, after almost aggression against two NATO members, Denmark regarding Greenland, and Canada, from Trump and his team, it was unlikely that these countries would rush to help the US. The 5th article does not apply in this situation because the US started first.

In reality, Europe, at least some European countries, underestimate the Iranian threat. Iran still has enriched uranium reserves, from which up to 11 bombs can be quickly made. Thus, the entire world found itself between the threat of a major economic crisis caused by Iran's closure of vital sea routes if military actions against it continue, and the enormous danger if the ayatollah regime gains the ability to produce nuclear bombs. Europe found itself under direct threat from the Russian regime.

Thus, the current White House policy, unfriendly to Europe, and Russia's aggressive actions are deepening instability in Europe and the Middle East.

Ukraine, Europe, and Persian Gulf countries as stabilizing forces
European countries are making every effort to maintain the fragile stability between relations with the US and their own danger from Putin's Russia. Ukraine, with its experience of prolonged war with Russian invaders, has proven to be an indispensable element in the gradually forming European security system.

Ukraine, which heroically resists and exhausts Russia's military and economic power, has become a true shield for Europe. As long as the Russian army is held back by Ukraine, Russia lacks the capability to attack NATO countries, and Europe understands this, which is why they are ready to supply Ukraine with weapons and financial resources.

Agreements on cooperation in arms production and experience exchange, which Ukraine is ready to share with partners, are becoming the foundation of a new security system, de facto integrating Ukraine into Europe, although this is not legally enshrined in agreements, particularly with the EU and NATO.

Moreover, the war against Iran opened entirely new opportunities for Ukraine in the Middle East. Ukraine's experience in combating Shaheds proved invaluable for the Arab countries of the region and for Israel, as Iran supplied Shaheds to Russia and shared the "secret" of their production. Ukraine developed its own system to combat them, which is quite cheap and simple for mass production development. In producing some drones, which Ukrainians use to shoot down Shaheds and their Russian counterparts, Ukraine surpasses Russia and even produces more than necessary for the war's needs.

Ukraine seized new opportunities. When Ukraine offered its assistance to the US in the war against Iran, Trump arrogantly replied that President Zelensky "would be the last person I would turn to for help." However, according to some reports, private American companies are already doing business with Ukraine in the production of combat drones.

At the same time, since early March, Ukraine has sent over 200 UAV specialists to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. These countries responded eagerly.

At the end of March, President Volodymyr Zelensky embarked on a Middle East tour, visiting Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Jordan, and later Syria. Agreements on military cooperation for 10 years have already been signed with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, and negotiations are ongoing with Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait.

Ukraine will supply drones, know-how for their production, and experience in countering Shaheds. In return, Ukraine will receive missile interceptors, oil, and diesel fuel, as well as investments in joint arms production.

Most likely, a similar agreement with Israel has not yet been reached, perhaps because Prime Minister Netanyahu still fears completely severing ties with Russia, even though it openly supports Iran, particularly by providing satellite reconnaissance information on the locations of American and Israeli military forces. Trump also tries to distance himself from such reports.

Ukrainian "sanctions" against Russia are more effective than American ones
Iran's closure of the main sea route in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz, prompted the US to take measures that directly contradict the goals of the war and aid in restoring the economic potential of the enemy. During the war against Iran, the US slightly eased sanctions against Russia's shadow oil tanker fleet and against Iranian oil.

However, things did not go as planned. Ukrainian long-range UAVs proved extremely effective in destroying Russia's oil infrastructure. For instance, the oil port of Ust-Luga, near St. Petersburg, from where shadow tankers depart through the Baltic Sea, has been almost destroyed. After multiple strikes on the port, it became nearly impossible for Russians to export oil from there. The same fate befell the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.

Americans repeatedly asked Zelensky to stop destroying Russia's oil infrastructure to stabilize oil market prices or to appease the aggressor. To this, the President of Ukraine responds that he will act reciprocally: if Russia stops missile-drone attacks on cities, Ukraine will stop hitting Russia's economic infrastructure. However, such a request from Trump to the Russian dictator was not made.

Nevertheless, out of the fog of instability, Ukraine is emerging more clearly, armed with new capabilities not only to strike the enemy but also to occupy an entirely new place in the world. A place not of a supplicant, but of a guarantor of stability.