The Russian president will not be able to fully take advantage of the unprecedented generosity organized for him in the United States amidst the war with Iran and attempts to somehow balance the oil market after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Yes, Putin will receive billions of dollars from the sale of oil from tankers prudently sent out to sea. But he was counting on more.

This "more" will not happen thanks to the efforts of the Ukrainian military. Strikes on Russian oil processing began back in the fall of 2023, but now their intensity has increased. And most importantly, Ukrainians have realized that they need to strike not only at oil refineries but primarily at the oil ports of the Russian Federation.

These combined strikes are trapping the Russian president in a vicious circle. Russia cannot sell oil, yet it cannot process raw materials for its own use because there is not enough capacity at the refineries. They have to shut down wells and use foreign currency reserves to purchase oil products abroad. 

However, due to the war in the Middle East, more and more problems arise, and yes, these oil products are also becoming more expensive. And the economy is starting to noticeably and significantly decline. 

It's no wonder that the journal Foreign Affairs notes that Ukrainian strikes have achieved what all Western sanctions combined could not.

Last year, the Kremlin's oil revenues fell by 24 percent — the worst figure since 2020. In January 2026, Russians earned half as much from oil sales as they did a year ago. In March, according to Reuters, revenues were down 52 percent compared to March 2025. For the first time in all the years of the full-scale war with Ukraine, Russia spent more on it than it earned from oil. So much so that Putin had to convene a special meeting to scold his ministers for the GDP decline.

Of course, he does not want to end the war and until today considered peace negotiations solely as a key to understanding with his American counterpart. But the issue is not only in Putin's desires — it's in his capabilities. If Russia runs out of money and conditions for social destabilization arise, Putin will simply have to stop. Risking the stability of the regime is not in his interest at all.

Thus, 2026, thanks to Ukrainian efforts, is turning into a time of real pressure on Putin. But it is important that only Putin is in the vicious circle, not Trump.

Because when Trump, on one hand, wants to quickly end Russia's war against Ukraine, and on the other agrees to issue and then extend a license for the sale of Russian oil from the "shadow fleet" tankers, he is effectively saving the Russian oil infrastructure and creating conditions not for ending, but for continuing the war. And not only for this but also for aiding Iran. 

Iran, realizing the possibility of such assistance, continues to blackmail Trump and block Hormuz. And Trump, to somehow reduce the pressure of oil prices on the congressional election results, again helps Putin in raw material sales.

I like Putin's vicious circle. Trump's vicious circle — not so much, because it is an exit for Putin, at least temporarily. And to force Putin to stop, Trump's "vicious circle" should be broken.

Especially since it will also positively affect the course of events in the Middle East.