Russia Loses Influence

"NATO should pack up and roll back to the borders of 1997," stated Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov in December 2021 (when many could not even imagine the horrors that Russia would plunge Ukraine and itself into three months later). Four years have passed since Russian tank columns crossed the Russian-Ukrainian line of contact (which had reduced the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine since 2014, when Russia seized Crimea and significant parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions), brazenly attempting to capture Kyiv "in three days." Four years — the duration of the war between Nazi Germany and Stalin's USSR, in which Soviet troops (with Ukrainians making up a significant percentage) together with the allied forces of the USA and Great Britain achieved a decisive victory over the Third Reich. Currently, Russia has become an aggressor against the independent, internationally recognized state of Ukraine, under the pretext that Ukraine has either "become Nazi" or doesn't exist at all and shouldn't exist (how these two statements relate is an unanswered question), and that the insidious NATO is allegedly "turning the non-existent Ukraine into an anti-Russia."

After four years of the largest and most brutal war on the European continent since World War II, which combined the trenches of World War I, the rhetoric of World War II, and the latest 21st-century technologies, Kyiv stands firm, the USA and Great Britain support Ukraine (though the current USA wavers between sides), and Russian troops have not even conquered the entire Donetsk region, suffering losses far exceeding the total losses of the USSR during the war in Afghanistan. Yes, the Russian leadership does not count the losses of its subjects for the sake of "victory at any cost." But for what victory?

In four years, NATO not only did not "pack up" but also expanded, accepting Sweden and Finland — right along the borders of Russia, especially Finland. Outraged by Russia's brazen violation of the international treaty on the immovability of borders by force (Helsinki Act of 1975) and, above all, alarmed by the increasingly real threat of an attack from Russia, European countries are increasing their defense capabilities and supporting Ukraine, which has become the last bastion holding back Russia's aggressive potential from unleashing a full-scale World War III.

Russia is losing one dictatorial country after another, which it considered allies, because dictatorships are historically doomed to fall. The first to fall was Syria — in December 2024, the 40-year tyranny of the Assad father and son ended, and although the country is now under the control of an Islamist regime, this regime realized that it is more beneficial to keep a little distance from Russia and cooperate with the West. In January 2026, as a result of a lightning-fast US special operation to abduct dictator Maduro, the regime in Venezuela was shaken; although it is still far from any normalcy, at the demand of US President Donald Trump, the country refused to cooperate with Russia in oil extraction (as a result of Chavez and Maduro's "management," its oil fields are in a state requiring radical restructuring) and is reorienting towards the USA. The Islamist dictatorship in Iran is about to fall — the USA and Israel launched a military operation against the Iranian regime on the last day of February amid widespread popular protests against it, which began in January and have not subsided, although the regime treacherously kills protesters (according to some human rights sources, over 32,000 people have died). Russia sent several air defense systems to Iran, but they are unlikely to help the ayatollahs.

Russia is gradually losing influence in the former allied republics. The final point in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan was put through US mediation; Vice President J.D. Vance's visit only emphasized that Russia is no longer in charge there. During this visit, an agreement was signed between the USA and Armenia regarding the transition of the Armenian NPP to American nuclear fuel and cooperation with Westinghouse. With Azerbaijan, the USA signed a number of cooperation agreements. The corridor that connected Azerbaijan with its remote region of Nakhchivan, which ran through Armenian territory, also appeared as a result of an agreement between these states, concluded through US mediation (it was named after Trump).

Finally, despite Trump's efforts to somehow restore relations, Russia remains a political and moral pariah in the eyes of the civilized world. The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for the Russian dictator. And although his appearance in court is currently impossible, the consequences are borne by the entire Russian society. With its behavior, the Putin state has earned the "honorary title" of Rashists; around the world, especially in Western civilization countries, it faces contempt, hatred, cancellation of its cultural events, exclusion from international competitions — it even reaches attempts to renounce the achievements of Russian culture. The "thanks" for all this, of course, goes to the Putin regime, which has covered the entire Russian society with moral responsibility for committing aggression, genocide, and war crimes against a neighboring state and its people.   

Of course, the Putin state did not arise "out of nowhere," it became the result of a significant part of the population's demand for the restoration of the Russian Empire, and the entire history of this empire is built on the false notion that there is no separate Ukrainian nation, and the empire itself originates from Kyivan Rus. Therefore, to stop the war against Ukraine, this foundation must be destroyed. However, the "restoration of the empire" is currently happening at a very high cost.

Sanctions that have deprived Russia of any development prospects and are gradually leading its economy to decline; losses in manpower, which are increasingly difficult to replenish; harsh repressions in response to the muted, hidden, but increasingly strong dissatisfaction of the people with the declining standard of living, lack of prospects, and the exhausting war without a visible end — all this is bleeding the country. Unfortunately, slower than desired, as it does not currently deter the aggressor from using terrorist methods of warfare; however, Russia's bleeding is inevitable.

 

A Stalemate?

Currently — since mid-2023 — the military capabilities of Ukraine and Russia demonstrate approximately equal potential; neither side is able to significantly change the existing front line, although recently the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been conducting more decisive counter-offensive operations, especially in the south. Despite this, Putin does not take a step towards a compromise resolution of the war and demands that Ukraine give up territories that Russian troops are unable to capture. These territories include the urban conglomeration of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and heavily fortified strategic Ukrainian positions. Agreeing to Russia's demands would mean exposing Ukraine to further capture, and lifting sanctions on Russia, even partially, and making business deals with it would provide it with opportunities to restore its military capabilities.

This appears to be an agreement that seems like a "stalemate." It hides opportunities for the restoration of the Russian military machine. The paper "guarantees" promised to Ukraine by both the USA and the "coalition of the willing" will not prevent Russia from further building up its military capabilities.

 

Russia Can — and Must — Be Defeated

Despite the bravado of the Russian leadership and the rattling of nuclear weapons, the economic and social situation in Russia is steadily, albeit more slowly than necessary, declining. It seems that American and European circles that make state decisions and determine foreign policy fear Russia's defeat more than its current aggressive potential.

This can probably be partly understood: in 1917 – 1921, the collapse of the Russian Empire led to a civil war and colonial wars, including against the Ukrainian People's Republic. The war ended with perhaps the most horrific communist dictatorship, which became a threat to the entire world. The collapse of the USSR occurred under the law on the right of secession of the union republics and therefore was not as bloody, but Russia itself grew into an aggressive Nazi-type dictatorship and is now trying to "catch up on the lost" and turn the hands of the historical clock back, while Ukraine's clock is set forward. Therefore, both countries will increasingly diverge in the dimension of the historical clock, and Russia, if its clock is not reset, will reach its collapse by continuing to destroy Ukraine.

If Ukraine agrees to Russia's demands, that is, a "stalemate," it will bring it a short truce during which both countries will focus their main efforts on restoring military capabilities: Ukraine — to prevent further Russian aggression, and Russia — for further wars, either again in Ukraine or elsewhere.

Unfortunately, in the current diplomatic efforts of the USA and Europe, even the possibility of Ukraine's victory over Russia is not mentioned. Probably, Ukraine's victory will be its ability to force Russia to stop the war exactly on the line of contact, without withdrawing from the territory it failed to capture, and, of course, without legally recognizing the occupied territories, including Crimea, as Russian. This can only happen if Russia's military potential is exhausted to the extent that the muted, hidden dissatisfaction of Russians grows so much that despite repressions, it forces at least part of the leadership to seek a way out of the war (something akin to the processes of the early 80s that led to Gorbachev's "perestroika"). Currently, these processes have not yet reached such scales, as the leadership still has money — to pay mercenaries, and propaganda skillfully brainwashes Russians.

According to a survey by Moscow's "Levada Center," conducted in October – November 2025, "after four years of large-scale war, most Russians, under the influence of propaganda, have developed a clearly hostile attitude towards Western countries" (Poland and Lithuania — 62%, Great Britain, Germany, Sweden — 50%), notes the Russian edition of "Deutsche Welle" in a detailed article on this survey - https://www.dw.com/ru/ravnodusie-i-strah-kak-vojna-protiv-ukrainy-izmenila-rossian/a-75700548.

Among friendly countries, 80% mentioned Belarus, 60% — China; North Korea and India (which has currently stopped buying Russian oil) were also mentioned.

According to the same data, only 8 –10% of Russians feel guilt or responsibility for the aggressive war against Ukraine. War fatigue is noticeable, but 62% of Russians want the war to end "on Russian terms."   

Interestingly, why is Ukraine not among the "hostile countries"? Did it not make the list, or do Russians not consider Ukraine a country (while they consider Belarus one)?

Therefore, unfortunately, the conditions for a ceasefire have not yet matured in Russia. Ukraine loses its people every minute, suffers destruction, but makes every effort to destroy the Russian military machine. European allies, Canada, and allies on other continents help Ukraine maintain the front and the rear. And Trump tries to play the role of mediator, but clearly does not sufficiently use the capabilities of the USA to pressure Russia, effectively giving it opportunities to continue the war, despite the terrorist methods Russia uses in front of the whole world against the Ukrainian people. Trump views Russia not as a civilizational adversary, but rather as a competitor in business — thus, he imposed sanctions against "Rosneft" on "Lukoil," pushes Russia out of the energy market, but does not dare to provide Ukraine with the capabilities to defeat Russia (i.e., to end the war on mutual compromises, not on Russian ultimatum terms).   

Russia's allies, primarily China, North Korea, and the "global South" countries, support its military potential. However, their ranks are thinning. Thus, Iran will probably soon fall out of them, where precise airstrikes by the USA and Israel most likely killed Ayatollah Khamenei (according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu). However, due to the USA's hesitation and insufficient pressure on Russia, the "equation" of Russia's potential with its allies is still approximately equal to Ukraine's potential with its allies.

If the USA provided Ukraine with powerful Patriot systems that would save Ukraine's vital infrastructure, and Tomahawk missiles to destroy Russian military factories and missile launchers, the Ukrainian side of the "equation" would prevail, and it would be possible to significantly weaken the Russian aggressive machine. In parallel, cooperation with genuine Russian anti-Rashists should be pursued to counter enemy propaganda (a wealth of experience can be drawn from the history of cooperation with anti-Hitler Germans). Recently, the "Platform of Russian Democratic Forces" was created in PACE. 

"Participants of the platform could be activists and public figures who oppose the Putin regime[4]. They were required to recognize the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders, as well as the sovereignty of Moldova, Georgia, and other states[4]. The biography of candidates should not include episodes of support for Russia's undemocratic or imperialist foreign policy towards sovereign states and justification of its international crimes[4].

One of the selection criteria was a signature under the Declaration of Russian Democratic Forces ("Berlin Declaration"), adopted by Russian oppositionists on April 30, 2023, in Berlin[4]. The declaration holds Russia responsible for the war in Ukraine and recognizes Crimea as Ukrainian territory[4]. The declaration was prepared on the initiative of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and other oppositionists[3]" — see "Platform of Russian Democratic Forces at PACE," Wikipedia.

We, American Ukrainians, need to mobilize to fully support Ukraine — not only because our relatives and friends are suffering, bleeding, and constantly dying there, but also because Ukraine largely determines the future fate of Europe, and therefore, the world. If at least a partial victory over Russia's military machine is not achieved, if its aggressive capabilities are not reduced, it will destroy Ukraine and move further.

We need to remind our elected representatives in Congress that Ukraine is at the epicenter of the battle between peace-loving forces and a mad aggressor, and the USA cannot afford to stand aside, secretly playing along with the enemy.