A few days before the fourth anniversary of the start of Russia's major attack on Ukraine, an explosion occurred in the very center of Lviv, which law enforcement agencies classified as a terrorist act.

What happened once again reminded us of the multilayered nature of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and that it cannot be reduced solely to a clash of armies. After all, the war against Ukraine is being waged by a state whose power is monopolized by special services — the successors of the former KGB of the USSR, which in new historical conditions exists under the banners of the Federal Security Service and the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia. But the main institution that the KGB acquired is the position of the President of Russia. The main office of the country, which the Chekists always dreamed of: what security guard does not want to take the seat of his own "object"!

It must be understood that the war of the Chekists is different from the war of the generals. Yes, in the Kremlin, of course, they would like the army to simply capture the entire territory of Ukraine and allow the FSB to move on to "filtering" and "identifying enemies" procedures. But when the military, who are one of Putin's tools for achieving his goal, fail, it does not mean that the FSB calms down and waits for the outcome of military actions.

Destabilizing the enemy country through terror is one of the important factors aiding the army, as it allows keeping the population of such a country in constant tension, eliminating undesirable politicians and activists, and creating new lines of division. By the way, when I talk about an enemy country, I want to remind you that for the FSB leadership, at a certain time, even Russia itself was such a country — when there were still sentiments in its society associated with the demand for a normal human life. The army waged war in Chechnya, and the Chekists organized terror and blew up buildings in Moscow and other Russian cities, killed opposition politicians and journalists, thus "working."

Another important factor in the capture of Ukraine is political propaganda. Until 2014, it was Russian television — along with channels close to the Ukrainian authorities and oligarchs like "Inter" or "1+1" — that remained the main source of information for many Ukrainians. This television contributed to the victory of Leonid Kuchma in the 1994 presidential elections and Viktor Yanukovych in 2010, thus really helping the degradation of Ukrainian society and keeping Ukraine in the "gray zone" of Russian influence. After 2014, Russian television was replaced by Medvedchuk's channels, and after 2022, anonymous Telegram channels began to play the same important role in the "dumbing down" of Ukrainians, and now I see a new trend — Russians will enter the Ukrainian market with the assistance of right-wing radicals from the West. And formally, we will see the opening of some American or European media, but in fact, it will be the same FSB.

Another important factor of influence is economic dictate, along with bribery not only of officials and oligarchs but also of the population itself, which always forgets the saying about the mousetrap and cheap cheese, excuse me — gas. It was with the help of gas that they tried to keep Ukraine and prevent its turn towards the West even during Boris Yeltsin's time, and Putin was already ready for outright blackmail, which only intensified after the 2004 Maidan and Viktor Yushchenko's victory in the presidential elections. And no one said that Russia will not use economic instruments in the future, moreover — even if we imagine an as yet unreal situation with the end of hostilities in the foreseeable future, the Kremlin will try to incorporate economic dictate instruments into any peace agreement. Of course, with the assistance of the American administration, where even at the level of Vice President J.D. Vance, they talked about the importance of trade between Russia and Ukraine. How not to use such a vision of the situation?

The list of all these instruments convinces that the question "when will the Russian-Ukrainian war end?" can only have one correct answer — never. As long as Russians believe that the statehood of Ukraine should be liquidated, and the Ukrainian people — canceled, the conflict will continue on several levels of escalation, even if Moscow lacks the strength for intensive military actions. It is precisely for such a development of events that both the citizens of Ukraine who live at home and those who have found themselves abroad should prepare.

Because preserving the state and the Ukrainian people in conditions of a long war, terror, propaganda, and economic pressure will remain our main task. And the years of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict — even starting from the 2013-2014 Maidan and the Russian invasion of Crimea and Donbas — have demonstrated that such a task can be managed even in the most difficult moments, of course, if unity, common sense, and a realistic understanding of the situation are maintained.