After the first trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi since the start of the major Russian-Ukrainian war, sources in the American administration suggested that a personal meeting between Zelensky and Putin might soon take place. Political fiction? Perhaps. But even the trilateral meeting itself seemed like political fiction until recently. And yet, it happened.

When we routinely say that Putin is not so much negotiating as he is imitating negotiations — that is, buying time — we must understand: even for imitation, an agenda is needed. The main point is that the Russian president is clearly not interested in direct confrontation with his American counterpart and is doing everything to avoid it.

But for this, it is primarily necessary to demonstrate a peace-loving attitude and readiness to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. And here, the set of "tricks" that the Kremlin magician uses to hypnotize the audience is evidently running out.

Initially, in the first months after Donald Trump's return to the Oval Office, phone calls and talks about the possibilities of ending the war were sufficient: the American president insisted on a ceasefire, and the Russian politely refused.

Later, when Trump began talking about "wonderful phone conversations" that lead to no results, Putin proposed to "unblock" the Istanbul process — without real progress. A bilateral meeting took place in Anchorage, but even there no agreement was reached, except that later there was talk of the "spirit" of this meeting, which in Moscow continues to be understood as the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the non-occupied areas of Donbas.

Then Putin, trying to prevent the provision of long-range weapons to Ukraine, agreed with Trump on a meeting in Budapest. However, this summit fell through after the heads of foreign affairs departments failed to agree on possible arrangements. An irritated Trump imposed sanctions against Russian oil giants. And then a "peace plan" appeared, proposed by the Russian side to the White House. But to discuss it and demonstrate seriousness of intentions, a meeting is necessary.

And now we are precisely at this stage. When the Russians had to agree even to a trilateral meeting to demonstrate peace-loving intentions. But Washington will push Moscow to take further steps. Even to a meeting of the presidents, which would then become an undeniable diplomatic triumph for Donald Trump. After all, bringing Zelensky and Putin to the same table is much more difficult than, say, the Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev, who met several times before visiting the Oval Office.

Does this mean we are approaching the end of the war? No negotiations, even at the highest level, guarantee this. However, there is another important formula related to the real state of the Russian economy and Putin's willingness to risk new Western sanctions. If the Russian president concludes that his economic capabilities do not allow for the continuation of the war for several more years, and new sanctions will significantly worsen the state of the Russian economy, he will agree to meet with Zelensky and to cease hostilities.

Can we say that we already see signs of this change of intentions against the backdrop of the brutal bombing of Ukraine's energy infrastructure and attempts to literally freeze the civilian population? To some extent, such signs are the trilateral negotiations themselves and the composition of the Russian delegation, in which we no longer see the "historian" Medinsky, but instead know about the presence of generals and even the head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff — Admiral Igor Kostyukov. And such officials are not just for "furniture," but for discussions on truly serious issues.

This demonstrates that there are currently several options for the development of the conflict on Putin's desk. It remains only to understand which one the Kremlin leader will prefer and what exactly will compel him to choose peace.