The latest barbaric bombing of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities by the Russians—and in this case, the epithet "barbaric" is not a rhetorical exaggeration, as it involves attempts to deprive millions of people of heating and water at the peak of winter frosts—was accompanied by the infamous Russian "Oreshnik" strike on Lviv region.

This is already the second such attack following the demonstrative strike on Dnipro. It is evident that the first strike was needed precisely to demonstrate that Russia possesses a complex that is impervious to the air defense systems protecting Ukraine. Therefore, that is the purpose of the second one?

In my opinion, it is a last-ditch attempt to intimidate Ukrainians. Ukrainians are being forced into capitulation with the entire arsenal of means at Putin's disposal, and the "Oreshnik" plays far from the most crucial role here—compared to the cannibalistic desire to "freeze" Kyiv or Odesa. However, Putin aims to scare Europeans.

I have already argued that Putin desires a quick end to the war no less, and possibly even more, than Trump or the Ukrainians. He cannot fail to realize the complex situation in his own economy and the scale of casualties of the Russian army on the Ukrainian front. However, the Russian leader would like the war to end on his terms—on the terms of Ukraine's capitulation.

Putin may well consider that the Europeans, with their willingness to help Ukraine, are hindering the realization of these dreams. The European Union's decision to allocate a grant of 90 billion dollars to Ukraine—funds that will allow Ukraine to hold out for the next two years—was an unpleasant surprise for the Russian president. As was the willingness of leading European countries to continue discussing the topic of their own military contingent on Ukrainian soil.

Yes, for now, the discussion is still about deploying these troops after a peace agreement is signed and a ceasefire is established. However, no one knows how the situation will develop when it becomes clear that Putin does not seek peace. Therefore, the Russian president needs Europeans to be frightened at that moment and not even dream of any military presence.

Of course, this is a signal to Trump—to ensure that the American president does not think of agreeing on any peace terms with Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders. To make him realize that negotiations should only be with Putin and exclusively on his terms. For Zelensky and the Europeans—to simply inform them of what Putin and Trump agree on and force them to accept these proposals. Otherwise—war and "Oreshnik."

Certainly, I am not claiming that Putin is bluffing. Underestimating the opponent, especially underestimating his inadequacy and persistence, is a direct path to collapse and defeat. Putin's actions and intentions should be perceived as a real and serious threat. And as a threat.

Threats and intimidation can be approached differently. One can be frightened and seek ways to understand on the aggressor's terms. Or one can find one's own signals of strength—especially since Putin usually has no real response to such signals.

He could do nothing to help his ally Bashar al-Assad, forced to urgently flee from Syria to Moscow. He could do nothing to help his ally Nicolás Maduro, who found himself on trial in New York. And, by the way, let's recall how in 2014 he could do nothing to help his miserable puppet Viktor Yanukovych when he fled all the way to Rostov.

So, when Putin is spoken to in the language of pressure, sanctions, and the destruction of his energy companies—he understands.

When he sees attempts to negotiate with him—he launches the "Oreshnik" near European borders.