The last days of May are marked by constant Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. Drones strike residential areas, causing numerous casualties and significant destruction. All this is happening against the backdrop of expectations of Russian proposals for a possible ceasefire on the Russian-Ukrainian front. Not many people believe that such proposals are realistic. Donald Trump himself advised Putin to make a proposal that would not be rejected outright. At the same time, Western media continue to spread information that Russia is not actually preparing for negotiations, but for a new offensive and an attempt to occupy territories in other Ukrainian regions. In particular, in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Meanwhile, Putin talks about “buffer zones” on Ukrainian soil.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, May was not only a month of preparation for a new offensive, but also the time of the main event of the year for Russian propaganda ‒ the celebration of the 80th anniversary of victory in World War II. Putin was joined by the main guest of this celebration ‒ the President of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping. Talks between the two leaders showed that the Russian-Chinese partnership is not only not weakening but, on the contrary, is becoming increasingly close. Donald Trump's idea of the possibility of separating Russia from China now seems even more illusory than in previous years. During the three years of the great Russian-Ukrainian war and Western sanctions, Moscow's dependence on Beijing has only grown. In addition, the two leaders are united by common ideological goals: reducing the role of the West and ousting the United States not only from Europe but also from Asia. Both Putin and Xi Jinping may believe that Trump's policies are giving them this historic opportunity.

Western leaders have tried to seize the initiative. On May 10, immediately after the end of the parade in Moscow, the leaders of the European Union and the United Kingdom arrived in Kyiv. There, together with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, they called the US president. It was agreed that if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire by May 12, new sanctions, agreed upon by the US and the EU, would be imposed on it. But Putin made his move. The very next day, he appeared on Russian television and proposed that Ukraine resume the negotiations that had been held in Istanbul in 2022 and had ended without any results. Putin did not mention a ceasefire at all.

This was supposed to be the basis for new serious pressure on Moscow. However, Donald Trump intervened, advising the Ukrainians to go to Istanbul and convincing them that this was a real chance to negotiate peace.

The Ukrainian delegation did indeed arrive in Istanbul. And, as expected, no negotiations that could have led to any concrete results took place. Moreover, Russian representatives categorically refused to engage in dialogue in the presence of American officials, who had also arrived in Istanbul. The Ukrainians were simply blackmailed with the occupation of new territories. After that, Trump said that he himself never believed in the effectiveness of these negotiations, which he personally insisted on. Instead, he said that ending the war depends solely on his personal conversation with Putin. Before this conversation, the US president spoke with Zelenskyy, who advised him to seek a ceasefire. But the results of Trump's negotiations with Putin shocked both the Ukrainian president and European leaders. The American president effectively sided with his Russian counterpart: he abandoned the idea of an unconditional ceasefire, which he had been advocating for several months, and even began to convince his interlocutors that he had never had such an idea and that Putin had every right to put forward his own conditions for a truce.

Clearly satisfied with the support of his American counterpart, Putin intensified rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities and drone strikes. It is now safe to say that Trump's very appearance as US president has led to a significant increase in the intensity of Russian attacks ‒ an increase in civilian casualties and new destruction of infrastructure. After all, the Russian president is convinced that the United States is not prepared to use any real tools to stop his aggression. He feels much more immune than in previous years.

We are in a situation where both Russia and Ukraine are forced to imitate negotiation activity in order not to lose contact with the US. It is obvious to Kyiv that even fruitless negotiations with Moscow are necessary to maintain military aid and intelligence support from Washington. Without access to such information, Ukrainian cities will become even more vulnerable to Russian attacks. Moscow is also eager to simulate negotiations: Putin is interested in continuing his personal dialogue with Trump. The very fact of the US president's constant calls to the Russian leader has become a major diplomatic victory for Putin ‒ evidence of the West's humiliation and a demonstration of the degradation of Euro-Atlantic solidarity.

In addition, the imitation of negotiations allows Putin to delay meeting with Trump. The Russian president clearly does not want to meet with his American counterpart in the near future because he wants to turn this meeting into a kind of trophy for Trump. Putin also understands that during personal negotiations, he will have to offer concrete solutions regarding the war. And Putin cannot offer any other solution except the destruction of Ukraine.

Thus, despite the political games in May, the positions of the parties remain unchanged. Putin hopes that the war of attrition will lead not only to the capture of new territories, but also to the final destruction of Ukrainian statehood and the annexation of its territories to Russia. This is stated explicitly by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who warns that Russia will never accept a situation in which the 'Zelenskyy regime' remains in power in Ukraine and laws continue to exist that are 'unacceptable' to Russians ‒ laws that promote the development of the Ukrainian language and culture and restrict the expansion of the Russian Orthodox Church.Without the repeal of these laws, Russia has no intention of ending the war. Their elimination is seen by the Kremlin as a prerequisite for the complete absorption of Ukraine.

Ukraine, on the other hand, is interested in resisting the Russian occupiers and, if not in restoring its territorial integrity, then at least in preserving its sovereignty. This is precisely what Putin and his entourage find unacceptable. European leaders realize that the collapse of Ukrainian statehood would mean a large-scale war in Europe and would allow Russia to launch new hybrid threats, at least against neighboring states.

For Trump, the obvious goal remains the restoration of economic relations with Russia. But he cannot achieve this without at least a formal settlement of the war. At the same time, he is unable to achieve such a settlement because he does not want to put serious pressure on Putin. And without such pressure, there will be no progress.

As a result, US policy in the Russian-Ukrainian war ‒ as in many other key issues ‒ is currently chaotic and only destabilizes the surrounding world.

May 2025 only reinforced this trend. And it did not bring peace. Only new attacks. And new illusions.