One thing you can't deny about Trump is his drive. He charges ahead like a bulldozer. Obstacles or no obstacles ‒ he keeps pushing. Right path or wrong path ‒ he still pushes forward. Whether that bulldozer follows the traffic rules or barrels down the wrong lane ‒ it doesn't matter, it keeps going. Whether it helps someone or harms them ‒ it doesn't stop. Does the driver himself gain anything from speeding into oncoming traffic? It seems he doesn’t even think about that much. He just keeps going.

It is an objective fact that without this crazy Trumpian push, the issue of “freezing” or ending the Russian-Ukrainian war would not have been on the agenda of world geopolitics. Rather, in February-March 2022, in fact, secret negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian sides took place several times on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, and eventually, on March 29-30, in Istanbul, Turkey, such negotiations entered an open phase. At that time, there was no powerful force among the Western allies that was ready to act as a moderator and insist on an agreement between the warring states. Moreover, according to David Arakhamia, head of the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna Rada, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson discouraged the signing of any agreement with Russia and advised to continue fighting instead. However, the British prime minister himself later refuted the overly talkative Ukrainian politician and claimed that such statements were “nonsense and Russian propaganda.” The echoes of the negotiation process can also be seen in the very strange so-called “grain deal” concluded in July 2022 in Istanbul, which was more about some financial deals between the two governments of the warring states, and which may well have done more harm than good to Ukraine.

However, Trump, after his victory, raised the issue of ending, or at least “freezing” the war to a completely different level. The search for an algorithm, not for the continuation, but for the end of hostilities, involves top politicians and countries that are directly at war, countries that provide assistance, countries that are ready to provide their platforms for negotiations, as well as leading media, journalists, and analysts who either spread their guesses or broadcast, under the guise of “information leaks,” the developments of special services and think tanks to warm up societies, test public opinion, put pressure on negotiators, and so on. No one has seen the real Trump Plan, but everyone is writing about it, quoting some details, referring to each other, and pretending to know everything.

The main theses that are being circulated by the mainstream media have not been confirmed not only by Trump himself, but also by any high-ranking official of the US administration. At the moment, the loose and unverified theses look like this:

  1. Unconditional cessation of shelling and fighting.
  2. Fixing the existing line of contact.
  3. Negotiations directly between the two warring countries, i.e. Ukraine and Russia.
  4. Withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied parts of Kharkiv and Sumy regions.
  5. Withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kinburn Spit (occupied part of Mykolaiv region).
  6. Withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (Zaporizhzhia region).
  7. Transfer of the Zaporizhzhya NPP to the United States.
  8. Supply of electricity from Zaporizhzhya NPP to both Ukraine and Russia.
  9. Restoration of the Kakhovka NPP under full control of Ukraine.
  10. Ensuring navigation on the Dnipro River throughout Ukraine under full control of Ukraine.
  11. Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the footholds in Kursk and Belgorod regions, if they are still there at the time of the negotiations.
  12. Russia's refusal to further encroach on the unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
  13. Ukraine's refusal to make further attempts to de-occupy its own territories under Russian control by military means.
  14. Official recognition (de jure) by the United States of America of Russian jurisdiction over the Ukrainian Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.
  15. Unofficial recognition by the United States (de facto) of the Russian annexation of the Luhansk region and parts of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine, which are currently under Russian occupation.
  16. The exchange of prisoners “all for all”.
  17. Ukraine's rejection of NATO membership, both by NATO and by Ukraine itself.
  18. Ukraine's incorporation into the EU, close to full membership.
  19. The United States lifts all economic sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014.
  20. Restoration of full-scale economic cooperation between the United States and Russia.
  21. Signing an agreement between Ukraine and the United States on rare earth metals and other natural resources, with the United States actually controlling Ukraine's economic policy.
  22. Allocation of funds for the restoration of Ukraine, although it is unclear by whom.

We do not know which of these ideas were agreed upon during the lengthy negotiations between Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin and his entourage. Some of them have been confirmed, while others have been denied. For example, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Russia is ready for direct negotiations with Ukraine, but, for example, regarding the Zaporizhzhia NPP, he said that it is under Russian control, and that neither its status nor its subordination can be changed.

Nevertheless, if we analyze Russian-controlled information sources, they are quite positive about Trump's initiatives, and as for the US President himself, they are even openly complimentary. The press of Western allies has different interpretations. The general trend in the Western media is that Trump's conditions are too harsh, and that the fighting is hitting Ukraine even harder, which is being exhausted more than Russia. In the Ukrainian media space, there is a de facto consensus, and this consensus is built around the rejection of the very idea of ending the fighting and stopping attempts to recapture the Ukrainian occupied territories in the future. If we analyze the actions of the Ukrainian authorities themselves, they are aimed at sabotaging Trump's initiatives, or at least at delaying the “talks about talks” as much as possible. That is why from time to time there are disgruntled statements by either US Vice President Vance or Trump himself that if the two sides (Ukrainian and Russian) delay the agreement, the American side, like the biblical Pontius Pilate, will “wash its hands of the matter” and withdraw from the negotiation process. This is outright blackmail and pressure, but it is temporarily effective. Such statements are followed by further contacts. The announced and later disrupted meeting in London is replaced by a handshake between Trump and Zelenskyy in the Vatican, during a brief, but one-on-one meeting. But later it turns out that even on rare earth metals, no real agreement has been signed, and Trump is forced to remind them of this directly and publicly. The sabotage by the Ukrainian side is understandable. Although the Trump administration has removed the most unacceptable issue for Zelenskyy and his political force, the election issue, from the terms of the agreement, it will still arise if the “truce” is long-lasting. And, in addition to the mercantile interests of the Ukrainian government, there are also state interests, and they also do not coincide in many respects with the proposals voiced in the media. As expected, Putin's initiative with the so-called “Easter truce” turned out to be a fiction and a cynical deception. All the missiles and bombs that the Russian army did not drop on the heads of Ukrainians during those two days were accumulated and massively sent “to the address” - that is, to kill Ukrainians. I watched the explosions from the window of my Kyiv apartment in the middle of the night, and in the morning, I learned that the Russians had killed 12 more peaceful sleeping Kyiv residents and wounded more than 80. The satanic nature of the Russian government has not gone away and will not go away, which is why Ukrainians, in their masses, cannot accept the idea that any agreements should be made with the kingdom of Satan. Nevertheless, Trump's bulldozer continues to move. He is a bulldozer after all. And we will see soon whether this “bulldozer race” will be a win or a loss. The bulldozer continues to push.